Wishlist to Sales Calculator: Steam Launch Sales

Enter how many Steam wishlists you expect at launch and your price to estimate week-one copies, first-year copies and revenue after Valve's cut. The conversion rate and first-year multiple are adjustable, with presets based on published GameDiscoverCo, Gamalytic and How To Market A Game benchmarks.

Step 1 of 3: Wishlists

How to use it

  1. Enter the number of wishlists you expect on launch day and press Next.
  2. Enter your launch price in USD and press Next.
  3. Pick Cautious, Median or Strong week-one conversion, or type your own range, then set the first-year multiple and the refund rate.
  4. Press Estimate sales to see week-one copies, first-year copies and revenue after refunds and Valve's cut.
  5. Press Copy estimate to save the numbers, or Change inputs to compare scenarios.

Steam wishlist conversion rate benchmarks

These studies divide all week-one sales by the wishlists a game had at launch, so buyers who never wishlisted are included. That is why a single game can pass 100%.

GameDiscoverCo's November 2025 report found a median of 15% for games launching with more than 25,000 wishlists, and 10% for games priced above $10. The Cautious (5% to 10%) and Median (10% to 15%) presets are built on these numbers.

Gamalytic's April 2024 study of about 700 games released after September 2023, each with at least 5,000 wishlists and 500 first-month sales, found a median of 22% in week one and 27% in month one. Leaving out games that sold under 500 copies likely pushes that median up.

Simon Carless's June 2020 GameDiscoverCo survey of 50 developers found a median of 0.2 week-one sales per wishlist, and How To Market A Game lists that study's medians as 15% under 5,000 wishlists, 20% for 5,000 to 39,999, 23% for 40,000 to 99,999 and 25% above 100,000. The Strong preset (15% to 25%) uses these older figures.

From week one to the first year

GameDiscoverCo's October 2026 study of about 5,000 Steam games released from July 2023 to July 2025 found that the median game sold 2.59 times its week-one copies in its first year, and earned 2.46 times its week-one revenue. Games that sold 1,000 to 10,000 copies in week one reached 1.96 times, and games that sold 10,000 to 100,000 reached 3.16 times.

Revenue grows more slowly than copies because most sales after launch happen at a discount. This calculator counts every copy at full price, so its first-year revenue is an upper bound for the copies shown.

Worked example with the default inputs: 10,000 wishlists at 10% to 15% gives 1,000 to 1,500 week-one copies. A first year of 2 to 2.6 times week one gives 2,000 to 3,900 copies. At $15, after 10% refunds and Valve's 30% share, that is about $18,900 to $36,855 for the first year.

What Steamworks says about wishlists

Valve's own documentation says there is no formula to accurately predict sales from wishlists, because players wishlist games for different reasons. Use the result as a planning range, not a forecast.

When your game releases, everyone who has it on their wishlist gets an email or mobile notification, and again when it leaves Early Access. Wishlisters are also notified of discounts of at least 20% on the game's lowest-priced package that last more than 8 hours.

The Wishlists section of each app's page in the Steamworks sales reports tracks wishlist additions, deletions and purchases, so you can watch the launch-day number this calculator starts from.

Frequently asked questions

What is a good Steam wishlist conversion rate?
Recent GameDiscoverCo data puts the median at about 10% to 15% of launch wishlists in week one, counting every buyer. Older studies from 2020 found 15% to 25%, and individual games range from almost nothing to well over 100%.
How many wishlists do I need to launch on Steam?
There is no official number. Work backwards from the revenue you need: at 10% to 15% week-one conversion, 10,000 launch wishlists suggests roughly 1,000 to 1,500 week-one copies. Enter different wishlist counts here to find the one that covers your costs.
How many sales does a Steam game make in its first year compared to week one?
GameDiscoverCo's October 2026 study found the median game sells 2.59 times its week-one copies in the first year. Smaller launches of 1,000 to 10,000 week-one copies reached about 1.96 times.
Do wishlists turn into sales automatically?
No. A wishlist is a sign of interest. Steam emails wishlisters at launch and during qualifying discounts, but most wishlisters do not buy in the first week.
Does the calculator include Steam discounts?
No. It counts every copy at your full price, so first-year revenue will be lower once seasonal sales and launch discounts are taken into account. Sales tax and VAT are also left out.

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